Twenty Hours Without Light

Long read: 5 minutes

"Sanctions do kill."
— The Lancet Global Health, 2025

This dispatch updates two earlier reports — The Island That Is Emptying on Cuba's demographic collapse, and The Cuban Crisis on the question of moral responsibility. This is the human cost on the ground today.

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Before the oil blockade, rolling blackouts in Cuba lasted 12 to 14 hours a day. Since January 2026, power cuts have extended to more than 20 hours in many areas. The electricity, when it comes, arrives without pattern — sometimes at 2 a.m., sometimes not at all, lasting between two and five hours before it goes again. Food spoils. Water pumps stop. Refrigeration fails. In the absence of reliable power, most Cubans cook with charcoal. They shower when there is water pressure to allow it.

On May 20, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated: "The reason people in Cuba are forced to survive 22 hours a day without electricity is not due to an oil blockade by the US." PolitiFact rated the claim Half True. The Cuban government's decades of grid mismanagement and failure to diversify energy sources are a genuine contributing factor. The blockade, which reduced fuel imports by 80 to 90 percent, is the other factor — the one Rubio did not mention.

The economics of daily survival have become arithmetic without margin. The average state salary in Cuba is approximately 6,500 pesos per month — less than $13 at the informal exchange rate. A carton of 30 eggs costs over 3,000 pesos. Many households are skipping at least one meal a day. Fuel is purchased in small quantities, in dollars, when it can be found, at prices most state salaries cannot reach. Those without family abroad sending remittances, without a private business generating hard currency, without dollars — the elderly on state pensions, single mothers, the chronically ill — are working with what the peso buys, which is less each week.

The streets register what the numbers describe. There are few cars. In Havana, only 44 of 106 garbage trucks have enough fuel to operate. Massive piles of trash accumulate in residential areas. Buses run only during work hours. Three-wheel scooters, the informal transport of last resort, sit uncharged during extended blackouts. Last year, a mosquito-borne illness outbreak — a direct consequence of accumulated waste and standing water — affected one-third of the population.

In the eastern provinces, consistently poorer than Havana and consistently harder hit, the crisis has a particular dimension. UN World Food Programme staff found farmers with brand-new agency-donated tractors sitting idle since February for lack of diesel. Cuba's food production has fallen by 60 percent nationally. Medicine supplies are available at 30 percent of normal levels. The infrastructure that would address either shortage — trucks to distribute food, generators to power clinics, fuel to run diagnostic machines — does not have the energy to operate.

The health system is where the compounding effects become most visible. Over 96,000 surgeries have been postponed nationwide. The childhood immunization program for newborns has been paused. Kidney dialysis has been disrupted. Childhood cancer survival rates have fallen to 65 percent. Of 78 CT scanners in Cuban hospitals, 37 are broken and 9 impaired. Of 21 MRI units, 10 are broken and 7 impaired. Voltage instability has accelerated equipment failure in ways that cannot be repaired under sanctions because the replacement parts come from companies subject to the American embargo. Physicians have been directed to rely on direct clinical observation — the medicine of a century ago — in place of the diagnostics the machines would provide.

The Easter Vigil was moved to daytime this year. Not for liturgical reasons — because of the blackouts, and because the absence of street lighting makes muggings of churchgoers a genuine risk after dark. The Discalced Carmelite sisters in Havana, who use electricity to produce the communion hosts distributed to every parish on the island, wrote to priests in June that they were rationing the remaining supply and did not know how long it would last.

Cuba's government has responded to the crisis with its most significant announced shift toward a market economy since 1959 — allowing the diaspora to invest in and own businesses on the island, reducing state company work weeks to four days, cutting provincial transport, closing major tourism facilities, and shortening school days. It has released more than 2,000 political prisoners as part of diplomatic talks with Washington. Negotiations continue. The blockade has not been lifted.

The UN Secretary-General has stated that the humanitarian situation will worsen — or collapse — if Cuba's oil needs go unmet. When a Florida-based company, Vanguard Energy, arranged a shipment of 250,000 barrels of fuel specifically for Cuba's private sector and humanitarian organizations — routed through precisely the channels Washington claims to prefer — the Trump administration blocked it, saying the company had not received proper approval. The lifeline did not arrive.

A 2025 study published in The Lancet Global Health, analyzing 152 countries over fifty years, established causation — not merely correlation — between economic sanctions and mortality. US and EU sanctions were associated with approximately 564,000 deaths annually, a figure higher than the global average of annual battle-related casualties over the same period. Fifty-one percent of those deaths are children under five. The study found that US-imposed unilateral sanctions significantly increase mortality specifically in children and in people over 60. Cuba's population is 25.7 percent over 60. Its childhood immunization program has been paused. The overlap is not coincidental.

Cruz's father, Rafael Cruz, was beaten in the streets of Matanzas in 1957 by the security forces of a US-backed dictator. The deprivation that drove him into the revolutionary movement — the hunger, the darkness, the sense that those in power had made ordinary life impossible — is precisely what the blockade is producing in Matanzas today. The son is now the one deciding how long it continues.

Ted Cruz predicted a new government in Cuba within six months. The six months are up. The prediction was not analysis. It was performance, made at the expense of 8.6 million people absorbing the consequences of being cast as props in someone else's political narrative.

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Sources:

  • The New Humanitarian (March 3, 2026) — blackouts extending to 20+ hours; food spoiling; water pumps stopping; charcoal cooking; average state salary 6,500 pesos; less than $13 at informal exchange rate; carton of 30 eggs over 3,000 pesos; one meal a day
  • NBC News (March 16, 2026) — power coming on at 2 a.m.; two to five hour windows; buses running only work hours; three-wheel scooters; fuel purchased in small quantities in dollars
  • NBC News (March 16, 2026) — few cars; 44 of 106 Havana garbage trucks operational; trash accumulation; people searching through rubbish
  • The New Humanitarian (March 3, 2026) — mosquito-borne illness outbreak affecting one-third of population
  • Democracy Now! (May 20, 2026) — Ed Augustin reporting from Havana; WFP-donated tractors idle since February for lack of diesel; eastern provinces hardest hit
  • OHCHR / Wikipedia (2026 Cuban humanitarian crisis, updated June 23, 2026) — food production down 60 percent; medicines at 30 percent of normal
  • OHCHR (June 2026) — 96,000+ surgeries delayed; immunization program paused; infant mortality 9.9 per 1,000; childhood cancer survival 65 percent; medicines at 30 percent
  • Think Global Health (May 19, 2026) — kidney dialysis disrupted; diagnostic rationing; physicians directed to clinical observation
  • Original piece sourcing — CT scanner and MRI figures (78 CT scanners, 37 broken; 21 MRI units, 10 broken); voltage instability and sanctions-related parts embargo
  • Angelus News / Aid to the Church in Need (June 3, 2026) — Easter Vigil moved to daytime; mugging risk after dark; Discalced Carmelites rationing communion hosts; electricity used to pump water
  • Al Jazeera (February 8, 2026) — four-day work week; provincial transport cuts; tourism facility closures; shortened school days
  • Multiple sources — 2,000+ prisoners released April 3, 2026; diplomatic talks ongoing
  • UN News (April 6, 2026) — Secretary-General statement on humanitarian collapse without fuel
  • Democracy Now! (June 15, 2026) — Vanguard Energy 250,000 barrel shipment blocked; Trump administration citing lack of proper approval
  • Rodríguez, Rendón, Weisbrot, "Effects of International Sanctions on Age-Specific Mortality: A Cross-National Panel Data Analysis," The Lancet Global Health, Vol. 13, 2025 — 564,000 annual deaths; higher than battle casualties; 51 percent children under five; US sanctions increase mortality in children and over-60s; open access CC BY 4.0 at thelancet.com
  • Cruz social media post, March 2026 — cited in multiple outlets including The Hill and Politico